It’s Hard To Get Excited About The Markets Right Now
Rick Ackerman joins me today to share his thoughts on these boring markets. Although he wants to be bearish on the US markets the Dow is making a move today that he sees as bullish. We also discuss Trump’s recent comments focused on Powell and the Fed’s rate hikes.
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Rick Ackerman is a great analyst but who really can say what will happen next. We could be on the verge of a new Bull Market advance within this Bull Market that is the second longest in recorded history. I have been seeing a time of reckoning for a very long time with all the huge debt levels, but I was obviously wrong. Business has been picking up but the statistics aren’t to be trusted because they can and are manipulated sometimes to the extreme. Real estate has been re-inflated and it just keeps chugging higher. Inflation is playing out in our economy and it doesn’t matter either. Interest rates have been steadily increasing but the US stock market doesn’t show stress in fact it too keeps moving slowly higher. Margin loans to brokers are off the charts, and China and Europe’s economies are sluggish. Trump has started a trade war but so far that points to business as usual. America is still fighting and financing many wars that they can’t end without losing face. The World looks like it never has before but there is almost no change in the status quo. Say anything you like or say nothing because we live in a time like no other, one that is directionless and nothing seems to matter anymore. I could go on and on but it wouldn’t change a thing, maybe the new symbol for our world should be the stoic, but still cigar store Indian. WHEW!
Real estate is the limiting factor. If people can’t. It because mortgage tested are too high and others can’t rent because it’s so expensive more than 30-40% if their incomes, than they can’t buy iPhones, put money in their 401ks, use Netflix, etc, etc, etc. and real estate is showing a top as we speak. Watch home sales data over the next 2 days. We already made the top and should accelerate downwards. And real estate, just like in 2008, will be the first to go and market will follow it down. My .02
Well said Dick!
I second that.
My guess: uncertainty and sluggish drift will, at some moment in time, be resolved by an acute event.
As a bush pilot once told me: hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror.
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I’d be interested in Rick’s view related to Stewart Thomson’s belief that Trump is readying a devaluation of the dollar to combat the Fed continuing to raise interest rates to weaken the dollar. Seems plausible to me and would definitely be a surprise out of left field to the market.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_082118.html